Why Most Businesses Aren’t Prepared
Many businesses assume that COVID-driven disruptions were exceptional and unlikely to recur. They’re wrong. Global supply chains continue to face elevated variability and uncertainty — from geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts to climate events and logistics bottlenecks.
The businesses that navigated recent disruptions best weren’t necessarily larger or better resourced. They were the ones that had already identified their risks and planned responses. Two tools make this practical: a risk register and scenario planning.
Step 1: Build a Risk Register
A risk register is a structured document that identifies critical supply chain risks, scores their likelihood and impact, and assigns ownership. The process starts with a simple question in a team session:
“What are some key problems or issues we’ve faced in the last 12–24 months, and what’s the likelihood of these returning or getting worse over time?”
Use the PESTELB framework as a starting point to ensure you’re covering all angles:
Political
Trade policy shifts, sanctions, government regulation changes
Economic
Interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, commodity prices
Sociological
Labour shortages, demographic shifts, consumer behaviour changes
Technological
System failures, cyber attacks, technology obsolescence
Environmental
Natural disasters, climate events, biosecurity threats
Legal
Compliance changes, contractual disputes, regulatory enforcement
Biological
Pandemics, biosecurity incursions, workforce health events
Key point
Run these sessions monthly or quarterly. A risk register reviewed regularly is far more valuable than one created once and filed away. Document everything — written plans ensure all team members can follow established disruption response procedures.
Step 2: Scenario Planning
Once you’ve identified your key risks, the next step is developing response scenarios. This means modelling what happens to your supply chain when specific risks materialise — and what actions you’ll take.
Effective scenario planning requires real data. Add these inputs to create realistic models:
For each high-priority risk, model at least two scenarios: a moderate disruption and a severe disruption. Document the trigger conditions, expected impact, and the specific actions your team will take. The goal isn’t to predict the future — it’s to reduce reaction time when disruptions occur.
Tools for Scenario Modelling
Basic scenario planning can be done in a well-structured spreadsheet. As your planning matures, dedicated platforms add the ability to run complex multi-variable simulations. Here’s what’s available.
Synergic Partners
Specialist Scenario Planning Platforms
Kinaxis Maestro
Concurrent planning engine — runs what-if simulations in seconds. Gartner Leader 11 years running.
o9 Digital Brain
AI-driven digital twin combining supply chain, commercial, and financial data into a single decision engine. Gartner Leader.
Blue Yonder
End-to-end SC planning with AI-enabled forecasting and execution. Gartner Leader 12 consecutive years.
anyLogistix
Supply chain simulation, network design, and risk analysis. Accessible entry point for businesses building their first scenario models.
Already on an ERP? Major platforms like SAP (IBP), Oracle (SCM Cloud), and Microsoft (Dynamics 365) include scenario planning modules. Check what’s available in your existing licence before investing in a standalone tool.
The important thing is starting. A risk register in a spreadsheet reviewed monthly will protect your business far better than a sophisticated platform you never implement.
Where to Start
If you haven’t done this before, start with a single team session. Gather your operations, procurement, and logistics leads. Use the PESTELB framework. List your top 10 risks, score them for likelihood and impact, and assign an owner for each. That’s your risk register. Then pick the top 3 risks and build one scenario for each. You’ll have a workable resilience framework in a single afternoon.
Take a SC Maturity Assessment