How NZ Exporters Can Stress-Test Their Logistics Through the Middle East Disruption
Dave Christie
Co-founder — Former NZTE Supply Chain Advisor
A Whole-of-Business Problem
The Middle East conflict is driving freight surcharges and supplier cost increases onto NZ exporters — fast. The instinct is to hand resolution of this onto the logistics team. That instinct is wrong.
This is a whole-of-business problem before it is a logistics one. Get the right people in the room — sales, operations, planning, finance and logistics — and keep them there. NZ feels this kind of disruption harder than most: around 98% of our exports move by sea, and carriers don’t prioritise our small, far-flung volumes. When global networks and routes break, we pay more and wait longer than larger competitors who are typically positioned closer to their markets.
Here is the practical, four-step stress test I shared at a recent NZTE webinar — actions you can take this week.
The Four-Step Stress Test
Four areas to work through this week.
01.Build Order Visibility
Get one business-wide, consolidated view of your affected orders at SKU level: original versus revised dates, current stock on hand, and the status of related inbound supply. You don’t need an ERP — a well-structured spreadsheet does the job. Then rank every order: Must Protect, Should Protect, Can Wait.
Action
Talk to your customers before you rank the orders, not after. What you assume is urgent and critical may not be.
02.Map Your Logistics Risks
Formalise what the last few weeks have taught you. Record every single point of failure — any node where you have only one option and no viable backup: one carrier on a route, one ingredient sourced through the affected region, one forwarder running everything, one customer who is 40% of a market.
Action
Prioritise by two questions: how likely is it to get worse, and what does it cost if it does? Start where both answers are “very”.
03.Determine Options — and Set Spending Thresholds
Don’t let your logistics team make commercial decisions in a vacuum. Create a tiered order category framework (ie: Critical; Important; Nice-to-have) and allocate spend thresholds for the logistics team against this framework — so the team can act fast without escalating everything to executives. The goal here is they escalate only what breaches the spend limit. Then do your own routing research before you call customers — ie: alternative carriers, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, multimodal via Oman, etc. Bring your freight forwarder a costed shortlist of potential alternates to validate — not a blank question.
Action
Remember, they’re probably more overwhelmed than you — the prepared client gets the better outcomes.
04.Assess Risk and Cost — Then Make the Call
Filter first for what can actually be executed, and how fast. Cost the viable options in full — freight, war-risk insurance, surcharges, holding costs, working capital impact. Then decide against your thresholds.
Action
Include the cost of doing nothing: a lost customer, spoiled product, a contract penalty. That number is usually bigger than the most expensive rerouting option — and it’s the one most businesses leave off the table.
The Most Important Thing You Can Do Today Costs Nothing
Pick up the phone. In a crisis, silence breeds assumptions. Your customer assumes you can’t deliver and starts looking elsewhere. Your supplier assumes you don’t need the orders and deprioritises you. Your forwarder assumes your shipment can wait.
Your customers and suppliers will remember who called them — and how. You don’t need all the answers to make the call. You just need to make it.
The businesses that come through disruption best are the ones with effective Sales & Operations Planning in place — this capability lets you model “what if the route stays closed for another 90 days?” and act early instead of reacting.
About the Author
Dave Christie
Co-founder
Dave is a senior supply chain practitioner with over 40 years of leadership across multiple sectors and industries. During Covid, NZTE conducted more than 300 rapid supply chain reviews for NZ exporters; Dave developed the framework for NZTE and personally led more than 80 of them - part of 100+ rapid reviews across his career. He currently advises Tainui Group Holdings on supply chain strategy and is a regular keynote speaker at conferences, webinars and podcasts. Dave presented this framework at the NZTE webinar “Stress Testing Your Logistics: A Whole-of-Business Response”, in response to the challenges NZ exporters were experiencing with the supply chain impacts arising from the Middle East fuel crisis.
At Synergic we help NZ businesses stress-test their logistics, strengthen supply chain planning, and optimise their networks — built on practical, NZ-specific experience.
Book a no-charge 30-minute call with Dave to talk through your logistics and broader supply chain challenges.